The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Inclusion
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
System fictional character modeling of urbanization significantly less than times limitations for the China
Even when urban expansion manage accelerate opportunity practices 17,18,19 , brand new automobile power have fun with has a tendency to associate adversely on urbanization height due to economic climates from measure 20,21,twenty-two . Including, a whole lot more urbanized section in Canada consumed lower for each and every capita opportunity 23 . On top of that, overall energy usage of outlying home is actually bigger than compared to metropolitan property, because the over 85% out-of outlying domiciles use ineffective solid fuel 24 . According to Customer Data Platform, 275 towns in the world fool around with hydropower, 189 towns and cities have fun with wind electricity, and 184 urban centers explore solar photovoltaic strength. At the least one hundred towns fool around with renewable power to reach 70% away from strength, for example Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you will Nairobi. In america, 58 cities, in addition to Atlanta and Hillcrest, keeps intentions to changeover to 100% neat and renewable power. Toward present technical and effort shop, it’s likely to get to 100% renewable power have around the world and you will reach no carbon pollutants from the 2025. The global stamina generation framework into the 2050 is anticipated once the lower than: solar power solar pv (69%), piece of cake stamina (18%), hydropower (8%), and biomass (2%), which have time storage electric batteries covering 30% away from strength request. It is indexed that every of your own planet’s largest dams and you will electricity flowers can be found in China, whenever you are Yunnan Province and you may Guizhou State lead 29% regarding China’s hydropower. The newest Jinsha River alone have a beneficial nine-height dam. The newest power created by this type of hydropower is actually personally sent so you’re able to Guangdong and you can Hong-kong from the higher-current grid. Due to the numerous hydropower resources readily available for air conditioning, Guizhou Province has feel China’s most critical analysis cardio feet. Inside 2018, Apple Corporation founded brand new iCloud study cardiovascular system during the Guizhou. Pretty much every high They organization of China possess build data locations in Guizhou, in addition to Alibaba, Huawei, and Asia Cellular.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in gratis siti incontri scopare population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.